Mexican-Canadian prospect Lupita “Loopy” Godinez returns to action this weekend when she takes on Elise Reed of the USA. Godinez, since joining the UFC in 2021 has earned a promotional record of 5-3. She is most recently coming off of back-to-back wins over Cynthia Calvillo and Emily Ducote.
Reed last fought on June 3rd, a winning bid in a hard-fought battle with Jinh You Frey. She is 3-3 in the UFC and looking to edge herself to the winning side with a victory over Godinez.
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Betting Odds
Loopy Godinez will come in as the significant favorite in this matchup.
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Fight Breakdown
Elise Reed incorporates many elements of traditional martial arts, especially taekwondo into her style. She is light and bouncy on her feet, with blistering speed and good accuracy and angles. She also utilizes a low guard, and both spinning kicks and a lead leg side kick with no telegraph.
It is essential that she makes the octagon feel as big as possible by maintaining a high level of movement and avoiding being cut off on the cage. Loopy Godinez is a much more basic striker, but she uses the fundamentals to such a high level that she is very effective. She keeps a tight high guard, and is always ready to shell up under fire and throw back hard. She has a stiff jab and good straights and hooks all round, but the most impressive part of her game is her ability to adjust her head on small angles and cover up to avoid the large majority of damage. She also chains good body kicks into her combinations, however in general she will be at a technical disadvantage on the feet. That being said, her ability to shell up, move forward and make the octagon small will make the hugest of differences.
Elise Reed has struggled against more physical opponents who can walk through some of her shots and take away her range. It’s not uncommon to see her land a few stinging shots and then be countered with one big hook on either side. Of course, anyone preparing to fight her typically has a gamer plan locked and loaded that involves taking her down and Godinez, although in more recent fights has elected to strike, came into the UFC with a primary wrestling base.
Godinez has to go back to her roots to get the job done as cleanly as possible. The most effective way her opponents have taken Reed down has been timing the level change underneath her punches. While Reed is exceptionally fast in bursts, when she commits she really commits, living the opportunity to drive beneath two or three shots. Godinez should have a bit of a strength advantage in the clinch so body locks and single legs on the cage are good, as she can rip Reed away from the cage as her base and likely establish control.
Prediction
While we cannot be certain what the game plan is for either fighter going in, one must assume that Godinez will look to lean on her wrestling heavily. If she can do so, I think this is a very good styles match up for her, as evident by the oddsmakers. As a -500 favorite, it’s not a huge value to bet on Godinez but using her as a parlay boost is probably the best way to get some value off of her.
Pick: Lupita Godinez to win (-500) as a parlay boost.
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