34 years old and entering his fifth UFC fight, Chidi “Chidi Bang Bang” Njokuani is 2-2 in the UFC. He won his first two fights in exciting fashion, finishing both via 1st round knockout. He’s since stumbled a bit, losing via second-round knockout and then by way of a controversial split decision.
Michal “Hussar” Oleksiejczuk, 28, has been a mainstay in the UFC since 2017. He has amassed a 6-4-1 record with five knockout wins and three submission losses. Both of these men tend to start fast and fight with violence.
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Betting Odds
This fight opened at near pick’em and has only narrowed throughout the week.
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Fight Breakdown
Njokuani is a talented and dangerous kickboxer who, through his endless length and striking technique, finds success at range. Typically, as seen in his back-to-back first-round finishes, Chidi is a fast starter. However, he doesn’t typically bring the fight to his opponent. Instead, Njokuani looks to stay near the black line on the canvas and use his range weapons like his stiff jab and prodding front kick to force his opponent to rush into range. When an opponent crashes distance without caution, Njokuani is highly skilled at landing a counter shot that can shut the lights out.
His goal is to be all the way out at range until that counter combination presents itself because his takedown defense and defensive grappling are still gaps in his game. Yes, he’s improved his ability to stay upright; and, once down, has improved in his defensive submissions. But, dedicated wrestlers have been able to get him down and hold him there for long and important minutes. Unsurprising given his background, when Chidi is given the kickboxing match he wants, he typically finds the finish. But, when the fight turns into a mixed martial arts match and he has to worry about clinch work, dirty boxing, and defensive grappling, we’ve seen Njokuani struggle.
Oleksiejczuk is a hyper-aggressive southpaw striker with show-stopping power and a killer’s mindset. From the opening bell, Oleksiejczuk looks to crash distance and land thudding body shots and overhand lefts that can knockout any opponent. Even though he’s competed at 205, Oleksiejczuk still often finds himself as the smaller fighter in the 185-pound division. Because of his height and length disadvantage, Oleksiejczuk typically enters range with a reckless abandon, relying on his stout chin and the powershots he swings forward.
Once he gets in the pocket, Oleksiejczuk has fast hands, works the body and head in combination, and pushes a solid pace. Further, “Hussar” is strong in the clinch and can hold opponents against the cage while dealing enough damage to deter the ref from breaking it up. His biggest issue, as is the case for Njokuani, is his defensive grappling. Oleksiejczuk has a sub 50% takedown defense and has been submitted 4 times. While Njokuani offensive wrestling would surprise me, if Oleksiejczuk gets lazy in the clinch, there is a chance that he gives up position or even his neck. When Oleksiejczuk fights with measured aggression, he’s dangerous and successful. When he fights with pure aggression, though, he can find himself in dangerous spots.
Prediction
On paper, both of these fighters are similar and that likely impacted the near even odds. Both are dangerous, powerful, explosive, and struggle with defensive grappling. However, a few key differences has me on the Oleksiejczuk side. First, Njokuani’s chin has been cracked and failed 4 times against less impressive power punchers than Oleksiejczuk; meanwhile, Oleksiejczuk has been in the cage against 205lb power punchers and has only been knocked out once.
Also, while both men struggle to defensively grapple, Oleksiejczuk is more likely to engage that aspect of MMA offensively and should find more success in the clinch given his experience and strength advantage. Lastly, Oleksiejczuk’s pressure and pace should push Njokuani’s sometimes questionable gas tank into a risky place. Outside of Njokuani catching him coming in, which is a real possibility, I like Oleksiejczuk to win this fight everywhere else.
Best Bet: Oleksiejczuk to win (-112)
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