TLDR
- Sean Brady is favored at -170 over Joaquin Buckley (+142) for their UFC 328 welterweight bout on May 9
- The fight takes place at 9:45 p.m. ET at Prudential Center in Newark, streaming on Paramount+
- Brady (18-2) is coming off a loss to Michael Morales while Buckley (21-7) lost his last fight to Kamaru Usman
- The matchup pits Brady’s grappling skills against Buckley’s knockout power in a wrestler vs striker battle
- Brady is priced at +330 to win by submission while Buckley is +250 to win by knockout
Full Main Card Odds (via DraftKings)
| Fight | Favorite | Underdog |
|---|---|---|
| Middleweight Title: Chimaev vs. Strickland | Chimaev -575 | Strickland +425 |
| Flyweight Title: Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira | Taira -162 | Van +136 |
| Heavyweight: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta | Volkov -142 | Cortes-Acosta +120 |
| Welterweight: Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley | Brady -100 | Buckley +142 |
| Lightweight: King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens | Green -440 | Stephens +340 |
Fight Time by Time Zone
| Time Zone | Main Card Start | Main Event (Approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| Eastern (ET) | 10:00 PM | 12:00 AM+ |
| Central (CT) | 9:00 PM | 11:00 PM+ |
| Mountain (MT) | 8:00 PM | 10:00 PM+ |
| Pacific (PT) | 7:00 PM | 9:00 PM+ |
| UK (BST) | 3:00 AM (Sun) | 5:00 AM+ (Sun) |
| Central Europe (CEST) | 4:00 AM (Sun) | 6:00 AM+ (Sun) |
| Australia (AEST) | 12:00 PM (Sun) | 2:00 PM+ (Sun) |
Venue: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey Broadcast: Paramount+ (exclusive for main card)
I’m excited for this one. UFC 328 FIGHT WEEEEEK‼️ pic.twitter.com/2LOIuhZ6XY
— Dovy🔌 (@DovySimuMMA) May 4, 2026
Sources: Action Network | CBS Sports | 98.5 The Sports Hub | Sports Illustrated
Sean Brady has opened as the betting favorite over Joaquin Buckley for their welterweight bout at UFC 328 on Saturday, May 9, at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. According to DraftKings, Brady is listed at -170 while Buckley stands at +142 as of Saturday morning.
The fight is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET and will stream on Paramount+ as part of the main card. Different sportsbooks show slight variations in the odds, with CBS Sports listing Brady at -100 and Buckley at +142.
Both fighters enter the matchup looking to bounce back from losses. Brady (18-2) is coming off a stoppage defeat to Michael Morales at UFC 322, ending his momentum as a legitimate title contender. Buckley (21-7) suffered his only welterweight loss in the UFC against former champion Kamaru Usman via decision last June.
Fighter Styles and Records
The bout represents a classic wrestler versus striker matchup. Brady is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who averages 3.53 takedowns per fight with 53% accuracy. He holds an 86% takedown defense rate and has secured nine of his 18 wins by decision, though two of his last three victories came by submission.
Buckley brings explosive striking power with 15 of his 21 career wins coming by knockout. He averages 3.88 strikes landed per minute with a southpaw stance. Before losing to Usman, Buckley was riding a six-fight winning streak in the welterweight division.
Experts analyzing the fight note that Brady stands 3-0 against UFC-level southpaw opponents. His grappling-heavy approach typically poses problems for strikers like Buckley, who has historically struggled against wrestling-focused fighters dating back to his Bellator days.
Betting Markets and Predictions
The over/under for the fight is set at 2.5 rounds, with the under priced at -130 and the over at +100. Brady is listed at +330 to win by submission and is favored in the “double chance” prop market at -135 to win either by submission or decision on FanDuel.
Buckley is priced at +250 to win by knockout or TKO, his preferred method of victory. Analysts point out that Buckley’s first-layer takedown defense is solid when standing, but he can be inconsistent covering his head on defense.
Sports analysts are split on their predictions for the fight. Sports Illustrated’s MMA Knockout staff voted 1-1 on the matchup, with one expert picking Brady and another selecting Buckley. Multiple betting analysts favor Brady to win, citing concerns about Buckley’s performance against wrestlers.
Brady faced questions about his health heading into his last fight against Morales, where he reportedly wasn’t medically cleared until hours before the bout and competed wearing double knee sleeves. Both fighters have stated that Saturday’s result is critical for their status as future contenders at 170 pounds, with Buckley suggesting the loser could face being cut from the promotion.
The fight takes place on a card headlined by Khamzat Chimaev defending his middleweight championship against Sean Strickland, with Joshua Van defending his flyweight title against Tatsuro Taira in the co-main event.
