TLDR
- Luke Riley (12-0) is a heavy favorite at -258/-260 over Michael Aswell Jr. (+205/+210)
- The fight is the co-main event at UFC London, O2 Arena, March 21, 2026
- Riley is an undefeated Liverpool prospect; Aswell is a durable Texas-based striker
- Both men shared a common opponent in Bogdan Grad — Riley KO’d him, Aswell lost to him
- The fight is favored to end inside 2.5 rounds
Main Event Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | -245 |
| Lerone Murphy | +200 |
Prop: Evloev to win by decision: -120 | Over 4.5 rounds: -345 | Under 4.5 rounds: +250
Full Card Odds
Main Card
Prelims
| Fighter | Odds | Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Jones | -118 | Axel Sola | -102 |
| Losene Keita | -238 | Nathaniel Wood | +195 |
| Mario Pinto | -900 | Felipe Franco | +600 |
| Mantas Kondratavicius | -800 | Antonio Trocoli | +550 |
| Brando Pericic | -270 | Louie Sutherland | +220 |
| Abdul Kareem Al-Selwady | -130 | Shem Rock | +110 |
| Shanelle Dyer | -470 | Ravena Oliveira | +360 |
| Luana Carolina | -130 | Melissa Mullins | +110 |
Fight Time & How to Watch
- Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
- Venue: The O2 Arena, London, England
- Streaming: Paramount+
- Main Card Start Times:
- London (GMT): 7:00 PM
- New York (ET): 2:00 PM
- Los Angeles (PT): 11:00 AM
- Sydney (AEDT): 6:00 AM (Sunday)
Here's your full #UFCLondon card for Saturday… 🇬🇧 👊
Get your tickets 🎟️ ➡️ https://t.co/kAdIyW7a64 pic.twitter.com/vHRanoDcnJ
— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) March 16, 2026
Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell Jr
Luke Riley fights at his home O2 Arena this Saturday in front of what will be a loud British crowd. The undefeated Liverpool featherweight is a heavy favorite going into his second UFC appearance.
Riley trains at Next Generation MMA in Liverpool, the same gym as Paddy Pimblett. He stopped Bogdan Grad by second-round KO in his UFC debut, and went 12-0 before that in regional competition. He carries nine wins by knockout.
Michael Aswell Jr., known as “The Texas Kid,” holds an 11-3 record. He comes in off a first-round TKO win over Lucas Almeida in October 2025. His three losses include a split decision to Bogdan Grad on the Contender Series and a short-notice defeat at a higher weight class.
Both men have faced Grad, which gives a direct comparison point. Riley knocked Grad out in round two. Aswell lost a close split decision to the same opponent, though he did out-strike Grad across that fight.
Styles and Matchup
Riley is known for his counter-striking and heavy use of feints. He uses leg kicks to slow opponents down over time. His strike accuracy sits at 60%, which is high for the division.
Aswell is a high-output boxer who averages nearly 10 significant strikes per minute. His aggression makes him hard to ignore, but he absorbs a lot of shots in return — over seven significant strikes per minute landed on him.
Neither fighter has a takedown offense to speak of. This fight is expected to stay on the feet. Aswell has not attempted a single takedown in any of his UFC bouts.
Finish Odds
Riley has a KO/TKO prop at +175. The fight going under 2.5 rounds is priced at +125 to +130. Neither fighter has ever been finished in their professional career.
The fight being over 2.5 rounds is the heavy -160 to -166 favorite on the market. However, most analysts see Riley as likely to get a finish if he builds momentum in the early rounds.
Aswell’s path to an upset likely runs through a high-pace brawl. If he can disrupt Riley’s rhythm and land something clean early, the fight could flip.
Riley is also backed by the hometown crowd, which is expected to be one of the loudest of the night at the O2.
Aswell’s last win came by TKO in the first round against Lucas Almeida in October 2025.
