TLDR
- Ian Garry enters as the betting favorite at -270 to -280 across major sportsbooks with Belal Muhammad as the underdog at +210 to +220
- Muhammad lost his welterweight title six months ago and recently suffered a defeat to Jack Della Maddalena, while Garry is coming off wins over Carlos Prates and Michael Page
- The fight represents a classic wrestler versus striker matchup with Muhammad’s takedowns facing Garry’s range and striking ability
- Garry holds physical advantages at 6’3″ with 74-inch reach compared to Muhammad’s 5’11” frame and 72-inch reach
- The three-round format may favor Garry as Muhammad has historically performed better in longer fights and Garry has struggled past 15 minutes
Main Event Odds
Arman Tsarukyan (-650) vs. Dan Hooker (+470)
Full Fight Card Odds
- Belal Muhammad (+220) vs. Ian Machado Garry (-270)
- Volkan Oezdemir (-225) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+185)
- Jack Hermansson (+205) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-250)
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-135) vs. Shamil Gaziev (+114)
- Tagir Ulanbekov (-218) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (+180)
- Bogdan Grad (+210) vs. Luke Riley (-258)
- Nicolas Dalby (+275) vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev (-345)
- Alex Perez (+180) vs. Asu Almabayev (-218)
- Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (-1650) vs. Raffael Cerqueira (+950)
- Bekzat Almakhan (+114) vs. Aleksandre Topuria (-135)
- Ismael Naurdiev (-142) vs. Ryan Loder (+120)
- Nurullo Aliev (-290) vs. Shem Rock (+235)
- Marek Bujlo (+170) vs. Denzel Freeman (-213)
Fight Time: 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT / 9 p.m. local time in Qatar Prelims: 10 a.m. ET on ESPN+
Belal Muhammad vs Ian Machado Garry
Former UFC welterweight champion Belal Muhammad will face rising contender Ian Garry this Saturday at UFC Qatar. The bout takes place at Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena in Al Rayyan, Qatar.
Muhammad held the welterweight title just six months ago after defeating Leon Edwards. His reign was short-lived as he lost the belt to Jack Della Maddalena in a bloody defeat. The loss pushed “Remember the Name” down the rankings and left him searching for a path back to championship contention.
Garry enters the fight with momentum behind him. The 28-year-old Irish fighter has compiled a 16-1 UFC record with his only loss coming via competitive decision against Shavkat Rakhmonov. His recent victories over Carlos Prates and Michael Page have established him as a legitimate title contender at 170 pounds.
The betting markets favor Garry by a substantial margin. DraftKings lists him at -270 while FanDuel has him at -280. Muhammad sits as the underdog at +220 and +210 respectively across the two platforms.
Muhammad’s game plan typically centers on wrestling and pressure. He has successfully used this approach against taller opponents like Leon Edwards and Stephen Thompson. Against Edwards, he landed nine takedowns and controlled the fight for over 12 minutes across five rounds.
The 37-year-old fighter started his martial arts career in boxing before transitioning to MMA. He combines fast hands with strong offensive and defensive wrestling. His wrestling game focuses on driving opponents to the fence rather than shooting from distance.
Physical Advantages and Striking
Garry holds clear physical advantages in this matchup. He stands 6’3″ with a 74-inch reach compared to Muhammad’s 5’11” frame and 72-inch reach. The Irish fighter uses his length effectively through footwork and counter punching.
Garry’s striking statistics show his efficiency. He lands 4.77 strikes per minute with 54% accuracy while absorbing just 2.77 strikes per minute. Muhammad lands 4.46 strikes per minute with 43% accuracy and absorbs 3.78 strikes per minute.
The Irish contender earned a Judo black belt at age 18. While he primarily uses striking in his fights, his grappling background provides defensive capabilities. His takedown defense sits at 73% compared to Muhammad’s 90%.
Garry has recently shown improvement against elite strikers. He neutralized Geoff Neal and Prates by avoiding extended pocket exchanges. His strategy involves using kicks and short counters while maintaining distance through footwork.
Wrestling and Ground Game
Muhammad’s wrestling presents the biggest threat to Garry’s game plan. The former champion averages 2.24 takedowns per fight with 38% accuracy. His pressure-heavy approach forces opponents into defensive positions along the fence.
The key tactical battle involves distance management. Garry needs to keep the fight at range where his striking advantages play out. Muhammad must close distance quickly and establish his wrestling game early.
Muhammad’s fence wrestling proved effective against Edwards, who is known for solid grappling defense. The former champion connected his hands quickly after closing distance. This combination of striking and wrestling pressure creates difficult situations for opponents.
Garry struggled with similar tactics against Rakhmonov. His opponent pinned him to the fence in the early rounds and controlled the first two frames. While Garry showed improved late-fight performance, the strategy exposed vulnerabilities in his defensive wrestling.
The three-round format may impact both fighters’ approaches. Garry has won just one of four championship rounds in his last two fights. His cardio appears to fade past the 15-minute mark despite using a relatively low-output striking style.
Muhammad typically performs better in longer fights where his wrestling can accumulate advantages. The shortened time frame puts pressure on him to establish control early. He cannot afford to spend the first round testing Garry’s striking range.
The finish rate for both fighters suggests a decision is likely. Garry is not known as a powerful finisher despite his striking skills. Muhammad has been knocked out just once in his career, which occurred over a decade ago.
