TLDR
- Brandon Moreno (+104 to +110) faces Tatsuro Taira (-130 to -132) at UFC 323 on December 6, 2025 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
- Moreno brings championship experience and superior striking defense (60%) against Taira’s elite grappling game
- Taira averages 3.21 takedowns per fight with 1.7 submission attempts, significantly outpacing Moreno’s grappling numbers
- The fight is expected to go the distance (-290 to -345 odds) with most predictions favoring a competitive decision
- Moreno is 31 years old coming off back-to-back wins while 25-year-old Taira rebounded from his first career loss
UFC 323 Main Event Betting Odds
Bantamweight Championship
- Merab Dvalishvili (-500) vs. Petr Yan (+340) – Over/Under: 4.5 Rounds (Over -410 / Under +280)
Complete UFC 323 Fight Card Odds
Main Card (10:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM PT)
- Alexandre Pantoja: (-245) vs. Joshua Van: (+186) – Flyweight Championship
- Brandon Moreno: (-104) vs. Tatsuro Taira: (-122)
- Payton Talbott: (-265) vs. Henry Cejudo: (+200)
- Jan Blachowicz: (-120) vs. Bogdan Guskov: (-106)
Preliminary Card
- Maycee Barber: (-172) vs. Karine Silva: (+134)
- Mansur Abdul-Malik: (-950) vs. Antonio Trocoli: (+500)
- Fares Ziam: (-160) vs. Nazim Sadykhov: (+124)
- Grant Dawson: (-235) vs. Manuel Torres: (+180)
- Chris Duncan: (-194) vs. Terrance McKinney: (+150)
- Brunno Ferreira: (-104) vs. Marvin Vettori: (-120)
- Jalin Turner: (-265) vs. Edson Barboza: (+200)
- Iwo Barnaniewski: (-178) vs. Ibo Aslan: (+138)
- Mairon Santos: (-210) vs. Muhammad Naimov: (+162)
Brandon Moreno enters UFC 323 with momentum after back-to-back unanimous decision victories over Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg. The 31-year-old former flyweight champion holds a 23-8-2 record and stands as one of the division’s most experienced fighters.
Tatsuro Taira brings a 17-1 record into the octagon at just 25 years old. The Japanese fighter rebounded from his first career loss to Brandon Royval with a second-round face crank submission of Hyun Sung Park in August 2025.
The betting odds reflect a near pick’em fight. Taira opens as a slight favorite at -130 to -132 across major sportsbooks. Moreno comes in as the underdog at +104 to +110.
Both fighters stand 5’7″ with identical 70-inch reaches. Moreno lands 3.96 significant strikes per minute with 44% accuracy. Taira throws fewer strikes at 2.87 per minute but connects at a higher 60% accuracy rate.
Striking vs Grappling Dynamic
The matchup presents a classic striker versus grappler scenario. Moreno holds a clear advantage in striking defense at 60% compared to Taira’s 47%. His championship experience includes five-round wars with Deiveson Figueiredo and Alexandre Pantoja.
Taira’s grappling credentials define his fighting style. He averages 3.21 takedowns per fight at 48% accuracy and attempts 1.7 submissions per contest. These numbers significantly exceed Moreno’s 1.51 takedowns per fight at 44% accuracy.
Moreno defends 64% of takedown attempts against him. His scrambling ability and wall-walking technique have proven effective against elite grapplers throughout his career. Taira’s takedown defense sits at just 45%, creating vulnerability in scrambles.
The oddsmakers heavily favor the fight reaching the judges. The over 2.5 rounds line sits between -290 and -345 depending on the sportsbook. Under 2.5 rounds pays out at +215 to +250.
Championship Experience Factor
Moreno’s path through multiple title fights provides an intangible advantage. He has competed in 25-minute championship rounds multiple times. His volume striking and championship cardio have carried him through adversity against top competition.
Taira represents the next generation of flyweight talent. His back-taking ability rivals anyone in the division including champion Alexandre Pantoja. The Japanese fighter’s transitions to back control showcase technical precision beyond his years.
Moreno wins by decision at +170 to +350 depending on method betting options. Taira by decision ranges from +170 to +350 as well. Finish odds sit much higher with Moreno by knockout at +1000 and Taira by submission between +1400 and +3000.
The fight takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC 323 marks the final pay-per-view event of 2025 for the promotion. The main card begins at 10:00 PM Eastern Time.
Moreno averages 0.4 submission attempts per fight and absorbs 3.62 significant strikes per minute. Taira absorbs just 2.54 strikes per minute while maintaining his patient striking approach. His conservative output on the feet contrasts sharply with Moreno’s aggressive pace.
Both fighters train at elite gyms with championship-level coaching. Moreno’s jab remains the best in the flyweight division. His combination boxing has evolved significantly since his early UFC days as a scrapper relying on will and toughness.
Taira’s straight punches and distance management continue to improve. His kickboxing lacks the depth of Moreno’s arsenal but serves the purpose of setting up takedown entries. The 25-year-old’s footwork will determine his success in drawing Moreno into grappling exchanges.
The winner positions themselves as the next challenger for the flyweight championship. Current champion Alexandre Pantoja has defeated Moreno twice in close decisions. Taira represents fresh blood in the title picture if he can overcome the former champion.
Moreno enters the cage looking to prove he remains an elite flyweight despite his age. Taira seeks to establish himself as the division’s top young prospect alongside Joshua Van. The clash of generations happens December 6 at UFC 323.
