Drew Dober aims to continue his resurgence in the highly competitive lightweight division as he faces off against the always-exciting Matt Frevola at UFC 288 this weekend. Both fighters have been on impressive knockout win streaks against formidable opponents.
Dober has recently dismantled rising stars and perennial contenders such as Terrance McKinney, Rafael Alves, and Bobby Green in some highly entertaining bouts. Similarly, Frevola has also secured two first-round knockout wins, setting the stage for an exciting matchup where both fighters have considerable momentum going into the fight.
Watch Dober vs. Frevola fight live on ESPN+ this Saturday night, as well as the Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo main event and more (order PPV now).
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Betting Odds
Being the more experienced fighter with a much deeper resume, Dober’s current momentum puts him at a 2-1 favorite.
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Fight Breakdown
The main commonality that these two fighters have going into this is their unique combination of immense power and reckless abandonment. They both put everything they have into their shots, which has put the two of them at both the receiving and giving ends of spectacular knockouts. Dober effectively uses his southpaw stance to mix bombs to the head and midsection in order to enter the pocket, where he’d either unleash a flurry of powerful shots or move to take his opponent down. Frevola stays on the outside much more, opting to move around his opponent until he can find a devastating counter right to try and end the fight.
From the ground and in the clinch, Dober likely has a significant advantage. Despite his wild entries into the pocket, he’s fairly technical when it comes to dealing shots with his dirty boxing and Muay Thai as well as set-up trips and throws with his background in judo. On the ground, he’s nothing too special, but solid nonetheless and very capable of dealing devastating ground and pound to wear his opponents out.
What separates Dober from most lightweights, Frevola included, is his iron chin. He arguably has one of the most tested chins in the division, if not the entire company, having only been knocked down once in 21 UFC appearances. Frevola doesn’t have a glass jaw, but it’s fairly safe to say that, despite the recklessness of his fighting style, Dober is much more durable. As well as this, Dober has a far more heavily tested gas tank, having gone the distance with a number of opponents in a solid fashion. Frevola has had his fair share of decision wins, but the pace at which those matches were fought as well as the caliber of opponent dictate that Dober likely also has an edge here.
Prediction and Betting Guide
There’s no real way for Frevola to win this unless he catches Dober extremely clean as he comes in to knock him out. Aside from that, Dober has the advantage in every department, and his pressuring style is likely to overwhelm Frevola who’s yet to face an opponent as powerful and aggressive as him. I also see a finish, likely by knockout. We’ve seen in his recent bouts that, even when he’s hurt, Dober is a menacing threat throughout the entirety, and could easily put his opponent’s lights out at any given moment. I’m light on a submission win because of Frevola’s defensive capabilities off of his back, but the odds being +900 are significant enough to mention. Aside from that, the Dober money line or victory by knockout is a fairly safe bet.
Bet: Dober by Knockout (-110) or Dober to win (-215)
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