Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya: Predictions, fight breakdown, picks

Dominant UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya gets his chance to become a two-division champion at UFC 259 on Saturday, March 6, when he moves up to the light heavyweight division to face the recently crowned 205-pound champion, Jan Blachowicz.

Recognized as one of the best strikers in the promotion, Israel Adesanya is undefeated in mixed martial arts competition and now 9-0 in the UFC since joining in 2018. The 31-year-old steps into this main event bout after cruising to a second-round TKO victory against then-undefeated Paulo Costa in September last year.

A three-fight win streak for Jan Blachowicz that saw him defeat Luke Rockhold, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, and Corey Anderson, earned Blachowicz the right to fight for the vacant UFC Light Heavyweight Championship in September. Despite entering that fight as a +190 underdog at many bookmakers, Blachowicz impressed on the night and stormed past Dominick Reyes in two rounds.

Blachowicz has long been an underrated fighter in the UFC. Even now, with the title to his name, many fans have been quick to overlook the “Legendary Polish Power” in favor of the challenger.

Currently, Blachowicz is a +190 betting underdog vs. Adesanya who is listed at -250.

Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya odds

  • Jan Blachowicz: +190
  • Israel Adesanya: -250

Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya predictions

Watch the full Blachowicz vs. Adesanya predictions video here.

Ant Walker:

Picking Israel Adesanya to win:

“The reason why I want to side with Israel Adesanya in this one is that I see more clean paths to victory for him. Blachowicz has to land something really hard in order to open up the opportunities to take Izzy down or to outstrike him.

“I see this as another tailor-made opportunity for Adesanya. It’s just going to be a weight class up. Costa had that ability to land that big shot and change things, and Blachowicz has that same ability. But I think we’re going to see Adesanya put on a clinic — a striking clinic — and it’s going to be a performance to remember.”

Drake Riggs

Picking Israel Adesanya to win:

“Adesanya should be favored as the pure better fighter in all areas and all that he possesses in his skillset. If Blachowicz can get a hold of him, there’s a little wrinkle there of testing his improved takedown defense. If he can get a hold of Izzy, I think his chances would be pretty decent of getting him down.

“But aside from that, he’s going to have his work cut out for him because I think Izzy is such a good, talented fighter. I think his [Adesanya’s] submission ability is underrated, as well, he could maybe catch Jan and surprise us.

“I think he [Adesanya] should have his way for the most part in this one, but he has to be careful with that power and keeping Jan off him. If he fights from distance here, he should be pretty ok.”

Matthew Wells

Picking Israel Adesanya to win:

“Robert Whittaker landed a few hard, clean shots on him [Adesanya]. If Jan lands those kinds of shots on him, Izzy might not be getting up. You have to pay attention to the power difference here.

“I think he needs to be more calculated here [than vs. Paulo Costa] and a little more patient. But obviously, still, he’s going to lead the dance. I think Izzy will take it at the end of the day but it’s going to be really interesting if Jan can find that chin and how he reacts to that.

“I can see Jan landing a counter-straight right up the middle and rocking Izzy’s world. What happens then? Does Jan go for takedowns? Izzy has good takedown defense. It’s going to be interesting to watch this one for sure.”

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